Meet the Mets (For Mets Fans Only!)

Extra innings for the Reds and Cubs. The heart of the Cubs order couldn't get it done in the bottom of the ninth.

3 games out. 

Hope. 

I know all of you Mets fans have to be Cards fans right now. The Cards have six left with the Cubs in the final 9 games, after beating them last night.  The Mets didn’t do themselves any favors when they played the Cubs recently.  I think they were swept, right?

It is a lot more reasonable that the Cards do damage to the Cubs than to think that the Pirates or Reds will derail Milwaukee.  Meanwhile the Mets end with three at home versus Atlanta.

From The Athletic. This doesn't take into account the possibility of the Cubs, Phillies or Brewers also losing games they should have won, but I would expect the Mets to be near the top for games that appeared to be sure wins:

The Mets would be even in the loss column with the Cubs had they won on …

1. Sept. 3 — Nationals 11, Mets 10

Obviously. The Mets had a 99.7 percent chance to win this game with a 10-4 lead in the ninth inning. If New York loses out on a tiebreaker by a single game, this is the obvious one to blame.

2. May 29 — Dodgers 9, Mets 8

New York held a 98.9 percent chance to win this game at Dodger Stadium when it led 8-3 in the seventh inning. Single Los Angeles runs in the seventh and eighth preceded a four-run ninth inning off Edwin Díaz. While it was Díaz’s second blown save, it was the first sign of the turmoil to come in the ninth inning.

The Mets would be even in the loss column with the Brewers had they won on …

3. June 1 — Diamondbacks 6, Mets 5 (11 innings)

Three days after the fiasco in LA, the Mets had a 97 percent chance to beat Arizona with a 5-1 lead in the eighth inning. Jacob deGrom had been taken out in the seventh, per request from general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, and the combination of Jeurys Familia and Robert Gsellman proceeded to blow the lead. Tyler Bashlor gave up the winning run in the 11^th.

The Mets would be even in the loss column with the Nationals had they won on …

4. June 13-14 — Cardinals 4, Mets 3 (10 innings)

Díaz’s struggles really started to get serious here, when St. Louis scored twice in the ninth to tie it then, following a rain delay that suspended the finish, another run off Díaz the next day in the 10^th. The Mets had had a 96.7 percent chance to win entering the ninth.

If only Pete Alonso hadn’t been so vociferous in postponing the initial rain delay, when the Mets had the lead late …

The Mets would be even in the loss column with the Cardinals had they won on …

5. June 26 — Phillies 5, Mets 4 (10 innings)

The late June series at Citizens Bank Park was a master class in how to blow baseball games.

The Mets' peak win probabilities for these four games in Philadelphia:

MON: 68.2 percent
TUES: 86.1 percent
WED: 95 percent
THRS: 92.6 percent

They went 0-4.

This was the 95 percent chance to win, when the Mets held a 4-0 lead in the sixth. Jason Vargas coughed up half of it, and Seth Lugo allowed Jean Segura’s game-tying two-run single in the seventh. New York turned to Stephen Nogosek in the 10^th, and he promptly allowed a walk, single and Jay Bruce’s walk-off double.

6. June 27 —Phillies 6, Mets 3

The next afternoon, the Mets had rallied for three runs in the top of the ninth off Héctor Neris to ostensibly stave off a debilitating four-game sweep. Díaz gave up a 3-1 advantage — and a 92.6 percent chance to win — with remarkable rapidity. He walked César Hernández and served up a Maikel Franco blast to left field to tie the game. Another walk and base hit later, it was Segura who took Díaz yard for the walk-off winner.

The Mets would be even in the loss column with the Braves had they won on …

7. June 25 — Phillies 7, Mets 5

We’re still in the same series! The Mets led 5-2 in the sixth, giving them an 86.1 percent chance to win. Walker Lockett and Wilmer Font gave up that lead quickly in the bottom of the inning.

8. Aug. 2 — Pirates 8, Mets 4

This loss wasn’t as traumatic narratively, since the Mets’ 85.9 percent chance to win came with a 4-0 lead in the third inning, with two more runners in scoring position and one out. Trevor Williams wriggled out of the jam, and Steven Matz surrendered five runs in the fourth to change the game.

This was the game when my son and I accepted what this year’s Phillies were made of.

https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2019/06/14/phillies-blow-5-run-lead-in-disastrous-9-8-loss-to-braves/

Ugh.  jfinnegan, that very finely analyzes what every Met fan is feeling. We all know there are a number of games that they should have won.  Someone had the time to dig into it and tell us exactly which ones!

I remember that one game wondering why Nogosek would even be an option in the 10th inning. I guess Edwin Diaz is their new Nogosek. Jim Breuer did a funny bit about the Mets last weekend. If you have 20 minutes to burn google why would you boo the Mets by Jim Breuer.   

jfinnegan said:

From The Athletic. This doesn't take into account the possibility of the Cubs, Phillies or Brewers also losing games they should have won, but I would expect the Mets to be near the top for games that appeared to be sure wins:

The Mets would be even in the loss column with the Cubs had they won on …

1. Sept. 3 — Nationals 11, Mets 10

Obviously. The Mets had a 99.7 percent chance to win this game with a 10-4 lead in the ninth inning. If New York loses out on a tiebreaker by a single game, this is the obvious one to blame.

2. May 29 — Dodgers 9, Mets 8

New York held a 98.9 percent chance to win this game at Dodger Stadium when it led 8-3 in the seventh inning. Single Los Angeles runs in the seventh and eighth preceded a four-run ninth inning off Edwin Díaz. While it was Díaz’s second blown save, it was the first sign of the turmoil to come in the ninth inning.

The Mets would be even in the loss column with the Brewers had they won on …

3. June 1 — Diamondbacks 6, Mets 5 (11 innings)

Three days after the fiasco in LA, the Mets had a 97 percent chance to beat Arizona with a 5-1 lead in the eighth inning. Jacob deGrom had been taken out in the seventh, per request from general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, and the combination of Jeurys Familia and Robert Gsellman proceeded to blow the lead. Tyler Bashlor gave up the winning run in the 11^th.

The Mets would be even in the loss column with the Nationals had they won on …

4. June 13-14 — Cardinals 4, Mets 3 (10 innings)

Díaz’s struggles really started to get serious here, when St. Louis scored twice in the ninth to tie it then, following a rain delay that suspended the finish, another run off Díaz the next day in the 10^th. The Mets had had a 96.7 percent chance to win entering the ninth.

If only Pete Alonso hadn’t been so vociferous in postponing the initial rain delay, when the Mets had the lead late …

The Mets would be even in the loss column with the Cardinals had they won on …

5. June 26 — Phillies 5, Mets 4 (10 innings)

The late June series at Citizens Bank Park was a master class in how to blow baseball games.

The Mets' peak win probabilities for these four games in Philadelphia:

MON: 68.2 percent
TUES: 86.1 percent
WED: 95 percent
THRS: 92.6 percent

They went 0-4.

This was the 95 percent chance to win, when the Mets held a 4-0 lead in the sixth. Jason Vargas coughed up half of it, and Seth Lugo allowed Jean Segura’s game-tying two-run single in the seventh. New York turned to Stephen Nogosek in the 10^th, and he promptly allowed a walk, single and Jay Bruce’s walk-off double.

6. June 27 —Phillies 6, Mets 3

The next afternoon, the Mets had rallied for three runs in the top of the ninth off Héctor Neris to ostensibly stave off a debilitating four-game sweep. Díaz gave up a 3-1 advantage — and a 92.6 percent chance to win — with remarkable rapidity. He walked César Hernández and served up a Maikel Franco blast to left field to tie the game. Another walk and base hit later, it was Segura who took Díaz yard for the walk-off winner.

The Mets would be even in the loss column with the Braves had they won on …

7. June 25 — Phillies 7, Mets 5

We’re still in the same series! The Mets led 5-2 in the sixth, giving them an 86.1 percent chance to win. Walker Lockett and Wilmer Font gave up that lead quickly in the bottom of the inning.

8. Aug. 2 — Pirates 8, Mets 4

This loss wasn’t as traumatic narratively, since the Mets’ 85.9 percent chance to win came with a 4-0 lead in the third inning, with two more runners in scoring position and one out. Trevor Williams wriggled out of the jam, and Steven Matz surrendered five runs in the fourth to change the game.

 almost every contending NL team has a similar tale of bullpen woe. 

Yeah, but I think the Mets were the only team that traded their top prospects to supposedly address their bullpen issues. They have to deal with that again this offseason. Wilson and Lugo are the only reliable guys. 

jfinnegan said:

Yeah, but I think the Mets were the only team that traded their top prospects to supposedly address their bullpen issues. They have to deal with that again this offseason. Wilson and Lugo are the only reliable guys. 

 There is just no way to tell with Diaz.  Did he just need a season to adjust, or is he a nothing burger?   I think Familia is the worse deal.  We knew all about his problems, and now he gets two more years at $10 million per.

Familia is worse than Diaz, but they didn't trade their top prospect for him. They outbid themselves in the Familia deal. So who goes to the bench when/if Cespedes comes back? And am I the only one that has a hard time watching Matz?

Well, I've only got about one more straw grasped in my hand.  The Mets are not mathematically eliminated yet but it seems inevitable at this point.

They'll have a winning record this year. And they managed to keep me caring about games until almost October!

Milwaukee needs to go 0-5 and Mets need to go 5-0. We can do this!

#lfgm

Soul_29 said:

Milwaukee needs to go 0-5 and Mets need to go 5-0. We can do this!

#lfgm

 That is my last straw I'm still clutching!

Oof:

ml1 said:

DaveSchmidt said:
I read through these, and the accompanying projections, and kept asking myself: Braves, “second in NL East”? Nats, “third in NL East”? OK! So Phillies ... “fourth in NL East”? Who the heck is this guy Bradford Doolittle projecting to win the damn division?
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26281236/mlb-opening-day-power-rankings-every-team-best-worst-case

Most of the sites that run simulations have the standings as Nats, Phils, Mets, Braves. But they also have the division very close, with only 5-6 games separating the top four. Which is well within the margin of error for projected won/loss records. So I guess the honest answer would be "who knows?" But these guys are paid to prognosticate, so they can't say they don't know.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Double oof:

I can’t find the comment, but before the season I expressed confidence for the first time in several years that this would be the season when the Phillies finished ahead of the Mets.

DaveSchmidt said:

Double oof:

I can’t find the comment, but before the season I expressed confidence for the first time in several years that this would be the season when the Phillies finished ahead of the Mets.

 I guess the correct answer back in March really was "Who knows?"

I haven't followed the head-to-head for all the NL East teams, but the Mets season will end soon because their records against the Phils and Braves were dismal. In a competitive division it's almost impossible to get to the postseason without playing your rivals to at least a draw. The Mets did not do that. 

That double play was impressive by both Rosario and Cano!

 9-0 after 3.  Keep this up and they may be able to let Diaz and Familia pitch.

FilmCarp said:

 9-0 after 3.  Keep this up and they may be able to let Diaz and Familia pitch.

 They brought in Gagnon to make it interesting.

It was a much more fun year than I had thought it would be.  They really rallied in the second half.  Add a bullpen and they might well be in the post season.

As for Cespedes next year, I would not lay any money on him playing.

mfpark said:

It was a much more fun year than I had thought it would be.  They really rallied in the second half.  Add a bullpen and they might well be in the post season.

As for Cespedes next year, I would not lay any money on him playing.

 I'm hoping that he does not come back. We don't need him and he's not part of this group anymore. 

Let's move on. 

I don't know if the Syndergaard for Betts rumors are real, but I would do that deal in an instant.

I may be alone in this, but I think good pitching harder to find than good hitting.  If the Mets trade Syndergaard  and let Wheeler go, who replaces them?  Is it an upgrade or downgrade?  While better is always good, they have hitters.  Some journeyman pitcher isn't going to improve this team.  Spend the money now to keep them.

I agree they can't have enough pitching, but Syndergaard has a 4.30 ERA. I know he thinks he's an ace, but he hasn't shown that he is. There are a bunch of journeyman pitchers with very similar stats to his. With Betts they would finally have a centerfielder and leadoff hitter. I really would like them not to go into another year without somebody that can play some defense in centerfield and hit over .230.

The Sox would not be trading Betts for Syndergaard. The rumors over the summer were Syndergaard and Diaz for Benintendi. But that makes no sense for the Mets who don't need another corner OF. 

Let's be honest, trading Betts for Syndergaard would be an insane move for Boston. 

Oh I totally agree with you. I don't see why the Sox would do it, but a co-worker told me Mike Francesa is saying it as well so it must be true. I don't think they do much during the offseason. Maybe trade J.D. or Dom Smith for some pitching. I looked at the available relievers. Not much out there. They might be stuck hoping that Diaz, Familia and Gsellman turn it around. 

Pete is pushing for one or two more homers.  Ergo striking out a lot.

mfpark said:

Pete is pushing for one or two more homers.  Ergo striking out a lot.

 Yeah, looked bad last night.

Agreed. He was swinging so hard he was stumbling in the box. Not a good look. He's a smart dude. He probably realizes this - I mean, he did have a golden sombrero last night - and I bet he hits one out tonight just by making superhuman contact on the ball in his usual way. I think the Mets will try to keep Wheeler and hope they get another injury-free year from their pitchers. Speaking of pitching, how do you rate deGrom's Cy Young chances? Pretty good, right?