Lockdown? Your health vs. the economy.

An argument for loosening lockdown is that it lockdown will harm the economy.  "Sometimes, the cure is worse than the disease."

Now, we get 2 new variants of the virus that may prove to be more deadly than the current one. So, if we lose 5 percent of our population, how will that affect the economy? Which would do more harm? A loss of business/G.D.P. for a year or two or a permanent loss of customers?


There’s been a study that shows that for a town the Gold Coast’s size anywhere in the world, we’ve come top for no covid deaths. 
The State of Queensland has had remarkably few cases of covid altogether, including the new strains, because of its hard border closures and strict quarantine rules for people who do come in. 
It’s also been shown that the very strict Melbourne lockdown last year stopped early signs of new ‘strains’ developing, similar to the UK and Brazilian versions that emerged recently. 
I don’t get to have a say because I don’t live with you, but I do care deeply about you, all of you. I want your businesses to thrive. But you need viable and healthy, sustainable communities to do so. 
Three weeks hard lockdown breaks the cycle. Please consider it. {heart emoji}
(I’ll supply articles to back up my assertions after I’ve slept, if that’s ok)


I would say wait and see where we are after 2/3 of the population have been vaccinated.

I don't buy the "cure is worse" line.  Ultimately, we have to at least get to a point where hospitals aren't overwhelmed.  The question should be - "are hospitals necessary?".


The play by Ibsen "Enemy of the People" written in 1882 almost perfectly parallels the decision struggle we are all going through now.  That is preventive health versus the economy.   Recall that Robert Koch's germ theory of disease was done in the 1880s.   There were previous germ theory ideas, but there were also bogus theories such as "miasma."   Koch formalized the theory.   

There are still too many people even in the US now who do not understand how an invisible virus can cause so much illness and death.   It is easy to deny something you cannot see.  Even many health care workers and first responders still somehow think the risk of infection is less than the risk of vaccination.   What a god awful mess we are in and the numbers of deaths and illness is staggering.   The only solution I see is to get as many people vaccinated, including children, as fast as we can.   Hopefully, the Johnson and Johnson vaccine when it comes online will speed vaccinations up a lot.  We may also have to get used to booster vaccinations every year.  


The CDC director reported on TODAY this morning that we still have 41% of the country not wearing masks. Not the area here to discuss, but I think we all know who is responsible for that.


Yes - the anti science movement has a following.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/anti-science-coronavirus-pandemic/index.html

Scott Atlas is still very active as an "expert" on the subject.  The anti-vaxxer crowd should get more vocal as things progress.  


I have two good friends who are against getting the covid vaccine.   They are long time friends, well educated and usually very thoughtful and informed about lots of topics.   But, I cannot convince them that the vaccine is safe and very much needed.    Even though we strongly disagree and have even had heated debates and arguments. they will always be my friends.   But it makes me wonder if there is some very deep psychological and unconscious thing going on in the brain that makes a person come to such a bad conclusion.   We all have our blind spots, but this one is really bad.  


Just posting the refs as promised in my earlier comments:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-28/a-year-from-first-case-gold-coast-has-no-covid-related-deaths/13095148  About the City of Gold Coast stats over the past year. You’ll remember this is where Tom Hanks was hospitalised. 
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-30/seven-countries-with-better-coronavirus-response-than-australia/13102988

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/29/dodged-a-bullet-melbourne-lockdown-may-have-prevented-more-deadly-covid-19-variant  This is really interesting analysis about hard lockdowns. The State copped heaps of negative comment from conservative press and politicians for their approach, but given the vulnerable populations it appears they were right. (Some things could’ve be better handled)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-29/coronavirus-queensland-qld-nsw-border-reopening-explainer/13097970 Latest on my State’s mostly successful handling of covid. 


Hi Robert, 

Wondering if you’d seen this article on vaccine hesitancy?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/26/could-understanding-the-history-of-anti-vaccine-sentiment-help-us-to-overcome-it

RobertRoe said:

I have two good friends who are against getting the covid vaccine.   They are long time friends, well educated and usually very thoughtful and informed about lots of topics.   But, I cannot convince them that the vaccine is safe and very much needed.    Even though we strongly disagree and have even had heated debates and arguments. they will always be my friends.   But it makes me wonder if there is some very deep psychological and unconscious thing going on in the brain that makes a person come to such a bad conclusion.   We all have our blind spots, but this one is really bad.  

 


bikefixed said:

COVID-19 is providing us with no end of lessons. This take is more shrill but only because of what he's seen going on.

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/01/28/Virus-Changed-Get-To-Zero-Face-Catastrophe/?fbclid=IwAR0zkJjmHP1LglKAG3TcQv4vPGR7kIgwcrSiHrVI6wTYR9WlX2g-UA49toA

 Based on this article, given the politicians and dolts in our society; We're f...ed.


"Get to Zero" seems like a public health slogan that is easily understood and it may be our best educational effort and hope.    


Intermittent rigorous lockdowns might have done much less economic damage than this prolonged low compliance environment.  10 months of not traveling, not going to restaurants, spending our free time at home playing board games, not going into stores or coffee shops etc, is saving us a small fortune. Some of ot goes to extra charity, but a lot of it is just 10 months of sidelined spending, not because of lockdowns, but because of caution in the absence of full behavioral change.


We aren't in "lockdown" and we never have been. Calling health restrictions a "lockdown" plays right into the hands of the people screeching about their "freedom." We should stop using that term. Wuhan was in a lockdown. We're being asked to wear masks and avoid indoor gatherings. Big difference. 


ml1 said:

We aren't in "lockdown" and we never have been. Calling health restrictions a "lockdown" plays right into the hands of the people screeching about their "freedom." We should stop using that term. Wuhan was in a lockdown. We're being asked to wear masks and avoid indoor gatherings. Big difference. 

 I don't know where you live, but here in NJ there have been lots of businesses that have been closed down.  Sure seems like a lockdown to them.   All kinds of businesses have closed forever as a result of government restrictions in the NY Metro area.  Not a lockdown?   We are asked not to travel also.   Maybe where you are there weren't lockdowns.   Hell, around here they even closed the schools and even now are just allowing in person schooling.   There are so many people who were not at risk of getting sick who were forced to restrict their lives and interactions.  You may be so privileged not to suffer, but there are all kinds of folks with mental health issues, physical health issues and addiction issues where things are much worse because or the restrictions, that sure seem like lockdowns to them


notupset said:

-------   There are so many people who were not at risk of getting sick who were forced to restrict their lives and interactions. ------ 

That's where your whole thesis goes into the ditch. There are no populations, none, that have no risk of serious acute illness due to COVID. And we're just learning about the long-term consequences of having survived COVID amongst all the age groups. 

Drastic measures to curtail our activity to quell the viral spread can cause serious harm, yet there are countries that have borne that burden and come out on the other side. Taking care of their citizens was a challenge but some governments were willing. We gave a lot of money to corporations though, so there's that. The extended unemployment and stimulus checks helped many but if real measures were taken to halt rent collection at all levels, not just residential, we wouldn't have had businesses closing. We could have taken care of ourselves as a society.


notupset said:

 I don't know where you live, but here in NJ there have been lots of businesses that have been closed down.  Sure seems like a lockdown to them.   All kinds of businesses have closed forever as a result of government restrictions in the NY Metro area.  Not a lockdown?   We are asked not to travel also.   Maybe where you are there weren't lockdowns.   Hell, around here they even closed the schools and even now are just allowing in person schooling.   There are so many people who were not at risk of getting sick who were forced to restrict their lives and interactions.  You may be so privileged not to suffer, but there are all kinds of folks with mental health issues, physical health issues and addiction issues where things are much worse because or the restrictions, that sure seem like lockdowns to them

 a "lockdown" is when you can't leave your residence. The borders are closed. You can't go to restaurants at all. Nothing. 

We are under health restrictions but it's by no means a lockdown. 


bikefixed said:

notupset said:

-------   There are so many people who were not at risk of getting sick who were forced to restrict their lives and interactions. ------ 

That's where your whole thesis goes into the ditch. There are no populations, none, that have no risk of serious acute illness due to COVID. And we're just learning about the long-term consequences of having survived COVID amongst all the age groups. 

Thank you for a much calmer reply than I was about to give.


notupset said:

ml1 said:

We aren't in "lockdown" and we never have been. Calling health restrictions a "lockdown" plays right into the hands of the people screeching about their "freedom." We should stop using that term. Wuhan was in a lockdown. We're being asked to wear masks and avoid indoor gatherings. Big difference. 

 I don't know where you live, but here in NJ there have been lots of businesses that have been closed down.  Sure seems like a lockdown to them.   All kinds of businesses have closed forever as a result of government restrictions in the NY Metro area.  Not a lockdown?   We are asked not to travel also.   Maybe where you are there weren't lockdowns.   Hell, around here they even closed the schools and even now are just allowing in person schooling.   There are so many people who were not at risk of getting sick who were forced to restrict their lives and interactions.  You may be so privileged not to suffer, but there are all kinds of folks with mental health issues, physical health issues and addiction issues where things are much worse because or the restrictions, that sure seem like lockdowns to them

Presumably "the people who were not at risk of getting sick who were forced to restrict their lives and interactions" also had some form of magic potion that prevented them from potentially spreading the virus?

Do I have that right?


sbenois said:

Presumably "the people who were not at risk of getting sick who were forced to restrict their lives and interactions" also had some form of magic potion that prevented them from potentially spreading the virus?

Do I have that right?

Governments should not have been running the lives of young people who aren't at meaningful risk of getting sick, closing their businesses, keeping them from the things that make life worth living.  If someone is afraid of getting sick they can stay home, social distance, double mask, use sanitizer, stay in their own bubble of people.  It would be like telling everyone they can't drive a car because there are some people that cause accidents.  Or telling all people to stay home lest they catch the flu and spread it.   This is not how a free country is supposed to operate.  Just like with any activity in life, there is risk and one chooses to expose oneself to the amount of risk one is comfortable with.   

 


Wow.  What an incredibly selfish view of the world you have.  If you believe governments don't need to look after the health and well being of society, I certainly invite you to drive on the left side of the road from now on.  Let us know how that works out for you.   


Someone doesn't understand the word Pandemic - that to date has taken almost 450,000 lives.

notupset - what exactly is your proposal?  Do you have any concern with overwhelmed hospitals?  Or should nurses and staff just "Deal" with it because we all need to be free?  


https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

58 or 1.5% of all deaths for 15-24

537 or 3.2% of all deaths for 25-34

Okay, but they didn't have meaningful risk so it's just one of those things their families had to face.

We don't know how many pepple in the other age groups those (15-34) who were asymptomatic or merely mildly symptomatic carriers helped become infected, but that's okay too, right?

Folks, please review your relaxed behaviors and get back to the way you were careful in April. And perhaps double mask. COVID plays a game that doesn't have timeouts, or even a rule book it seems. Definitely no mercy rule. New Jersey and New York demonstrated it is possible to drastically cut down the virus' spread over the summer. We can do it again. Please. Until we have been vaccinated we must be considerate or this will be much tougher to stop.



notupset said:

sbenois said:

Presumably "the people who were not at risk of getting sick who were forced to restrict their lives and interactions" also had some form of magic potion that prevented them from potentially spreading the virus?

Do I have that right?

Governments should not have been running the lives of young people who aren't at meaningful risk of getting sick, closing their businesses, keeping them from the things that make life worth living.  If someone is afraid of getting sick they can stay home, social distance, double mask, use sanitizer, stay in their own bubble of people.  It would be like telling everyone they can't drive a car because there are some people that cause accidents.  Or telling all people to stay home lest they catch the flu and spread it.   This is not how a free country is supposed to operate.  Just like with any activity in life, there is risk and one chooses to expose oneself to the amount of risk one is comfortable with.   

 

You sound upset.


dave said:

notupset said:

sbenois said:

Presumably "the people who were not at risk of getting sick who were forced to restrict their lives and interactions" also had some form of magic potion that prevented them from potentially spreading the virus?

Do I have that right?

Governments should not have been running the lives of young people who aren't at meaningful risk of getting sick, closing their businesses, keeping them from the things that make life worth living.  If someone is afraid of getting sick they can stay home, social distance, double mask, use sanitizer, stay in their own bubble of people.  It would be like telling everyone they can't drive a car because there are some people that cause accidents.  Or telling all people to stay home lest they catch the flu and spread it.   This is not how a free country is supposed to operate.  Just like with any activity in life, there is risk and one chooses to expose oneself to the amount of risk one is comfortable with.   

 

You sound upset.

 Or just plain stupid !


This pandemic has caused all sorts of hurt so I cannot judge things people say and do. Sure, I get mad and complain, and lament, and cast aspersion on FB and Twitter, like many others. I don't always hide my frustrations and spew my share of vitriol but the work I'm doing now has really shown me just how comfortable my wife and I have it. I can't do it justice.

That all said, 6 years ago I was put instantly into a condition where I was full of hate and anger at the world and I had no recollection as to why. Each day was a reintroduction to how messed up my life had become and I didn't know how to make my way out of it. I lashed out like it was my job. Again, I had the privilege of resources that helped me turn around but it took years - most of which I can't clearly remember, but my wife sure does.

Many of us are in dire straits now and I'm sorry for that. However, doing things to ward off the pandemic saves lives. The problems that kind of shut down causes can at least be helped. If only we would. Right now, those are easier to solve than what this virus and its cousins are doing.

Please, be kind.


My feeling all along has been that it is hard to do any of the things that "make life worth living" if I'm dead.


@bikefixed and @RobertRoe, I found this article exploring local vaccine hesitancy (and some pandemic info fatigue) worth reading. I haven’t checked yet to see if it’s reflected or answered on our government sites (better health channel, head to health, etc) or other news. 
However I am very aware that over the past few years there’s been a lot of emerging research on the missing info for women’s health in ‘ordinary’ medicine, pharmacology, specialist disciplines etc. 
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/31/there-is-a-lot-of-distrust-why-women-in-their-30s-are-hesitant-about-the-covid-vaccine

What I’m wondering is, is there similar inquiry in the US re this demographic? The conversations on compliance could be easier if we knew more from their side. 

In my own case, as a result of my ABI over 30 yrs ago, I still can’t donate blood, and I’m not allowed certain routine vaccinations - in case of seizures even though I’ve never had one. Bizarre rules, but hey. And allergies prevent me having some other shots. I have no idea which covid vax we’ll land up with or if I can take it. 


notupset said:

Governments should not have been running the lives of young people who aren't at meaningful risk of getting sick, closing their businesses, keeping them from the things that make life worth living.  If someone is afraid of getting sick they can stay home, social distance, double mask, use sanitizer, stay in their own bubble of people.  It would be like telling everyone they can't drive a car because there are some people that cause accidents.  Or telling all people to stay home lest they catch the flu and spread it.   This is not how a free country is supposed to operate.  Just like with any activity in life, there is risk and one chooses to expose oneself to the amount of risk one is comfortable with.   

 

My 42 y.o. sister, with a 6 y.o. child, contracted COVID in late March. Since then she is one of those called a long-hauler. She has headaches, trouble sleeping, “brain fog”, difficulty concentrating and can barely work. Certainly not full time. 

This is a serious disease that no one can predict how it will affect them. 

Shame on those, including you, who minimize it and don’t protect others by complying with public health recommendations.


I'm so tired of people who claim that we have been in "lockdown" or that the absence of restrictions would have done much to protect our economy.  That is just a theory without facts behind it.  Show me the state-by-state data showing that ignoring safety constraints has led to dramatically improved economic outcomes -- I haven't seen it anywhere.

Having no constraints would have gotten more people sick -- some because of health-risk based choices to go out and socialize, others because they had to give up unemployment payments to return to re-opening and unsafe workplaces or face deeper financial hardship.  Having full lock-downs when infections surged might have lowered health risks, but we'll never know.  Having better government policies might have saved many businesses from ruin, but we didn't have those either.

But no matter what the status of business constraints might be, a substantial percentage of the population would have continued making health-preserving choices that would still contribute to business declines. We didn't stay home because of mandated business limits or closures -- we stayed home (and still do) because it was risky to be in congregate spaces.



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