Jobs, Jobs, Jobs....

Tom

I only need one job.


RobB

RIP Steve Jobs


ml1

if ajc wants to believe that this trend in the unemployment rate is due to Trump and it makes him happy, I suppose it doesn't hurt anyone.



drummerboy

The OP is by far ajc's most insightful post ever.


librarylady

Both my son the attorney and my daughter the marketing exec are looking for a job..So much for our new president.


Art (ajc)

Not to worry librarylady, help is clearly, and surely on the way...



librarylady said:

Both my son the attorney and my daughter the marketing exec are looking for a job..So much for our new president.



FilmCarp

Yes, Trump will generate a lot of work for lawyers.


Tom


FilmCarp said:

Yes, Trump will generate a lot of work for lawyers.

 oh oh 


Art (ajc)
ml1 said:
if ajc wants to believe that this trend in the unemployment rate is due to Trump and it makes him happy, I suppose it doesn't hurt anyone.


 

I believe this trend in the unemployment rate is due to Trump, and it makes me happy because it doesn't hurt anyone...  grin 


yahooyahoo
ajc said:


ml1 said:
if ajc wants to believe that this trend in the unemployment rate is due to Trump and it makes him happy, I suppose it doesn't hurt anyone.
 
I believe this trend in the unemployment rate is due to Trump, and it makes me happy because it doesn't hurt anyone...  grin 


Even the part that was due to Obama?


Ridley

Always worth noting when looking at falling unemployment numbers.


Jonathan
ridski said:
Always worth noting when looking at falling unemployment numbers.

 Trumpists are not interested in graphics..... they're all members of the church of the poisoned mind.


ml1
ajc said:
 
I believe this trend in the unemployment rate is due to Trump, and it makes me happy because it doesn't hurt anyone...  grin 


it doesn't hurt anyone.  But it still indicates an inability to look at a trend line and interpret it properly



John

This seems to be a continuation of the trend started during Obama administration, after the '08 meltdown.


yahooyahoo
Formerlyjerseyjack said:
This seems to be a continuation of the trend started during Obama administration, after the '08 meltdown.

Don't let facts get in the way.


kthnry

Formerlyjerseyjack said:
This seems to be a continuation of the trend started during Obama administration, after the '08 meltdown.

 You mean like this?



Stanley

Joe Scarborough said that credit was certainly due Trump for being almost as good as Obama as to these numbers.


Stanley

Of course the question is what did either of them actually do to reduce unemployment. How much of what any President does actually effect the economy?? 


ml1
STANV said:
Of course the question is what did either of them actually do to reduce unemployment. How much of what any President does actually effect the economy?? 

very little.  Bush and Obama managed to get some policies in place that stopped the hemorrhaging, but beyond that, not much can be attributed to anything the presidents have done.

One thing that is clear is that there are still a lot of people out there who are unemployed or underemployed and have given up looking.  The total unemployed number is down a lot, but it's still twice as high as the "official" unemployment rate.  Trump should be careful about bragging too much about the economy when a lot of his voters -- older, less educated, rust belt residents, still don't have a lot of opportunities.  Those are the people that turned on the "elites" because they were deaf and blind to their problems.  Trump's constant boasting about the great economy isn't going to play well with parts of his base.  I doubt many of them will vote Democratic, but a lot of them may just stay home from the polls next year.


ml1
ridski said:
Always worth noting when looking at falling unemployment numbers.

there are a lot of retired baby boomers represented by that number.  It's probably more fair to look at the age 25-54 employment rate.  It's down from pre-recession (83.3% in Jan, 2008 compared to 81.8% now), but not down as much as the 16+ number.

No matter how we slice it though, the great topline economic indicators are masking the fact that there are still millions of people out there struggling with unemployment or underemployment, no matter what the president or talking heads on CNBC want to say.



tjohn

The last time we had a President, Trump was making a big thing about the labor participation rate and claiming unemployment was very high.  He's strangely silent about that now.

The other thing that ought to make any real conservatives uncomfortable is that, as usual, we are running up debt during good times rather than paying down debt in preparation for the next downturn.  Trump's tax cut for the rich was just a dose of bad steroids for an economy that was already in great shape.


Jamie

From Trump in the past:

“Don’t believe those phony numbers,” Trump declared during his victory speech after the New Hampshire primary, in February. “When you hear 4.9 and five-per-cent unemployment, the number’s probably twenty-eight, twenty-nine, as high as thirty-five—in fact, I even heard recently forty-two per cent.” By June, when he did an interview on Fox News’s “Justice with Judge Jeanine,” he’d received new data. “The number five per cent is a phony number—it’s really twenty per cent, close to twenty-per-cent unemployment. That’s just a phony number to make the politicians look good.” In an August speech on the economy, he said, in reference to the official government unemployment rate, “The five-per-cent figure is one of the biggest hoaxes in American modern politics.”

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/trump-and-the-truth-the-unemployment-rate-hoax

So - @ajc - which is it?  Is the unemployment rate real - or a hoax?


Ridley
ml1 said:
there are a lot of retired baby boomers represented by that number.  It's probably more fair to look at the age 25-54 employment rate.  It's down from pre-recession (83.3% in Jan, 2008 compared to 81.8% now), but not down as much as the 16+ number.
No matter how we slice it though, the great topline economic indicators are masking the fact that there are still millions of people out there struggling with unemployment or underemployment, no matter what the president or talking heads on CNBC want to say.


 Exactly, as pointed out brilliantly in this extraordinary and long article from Mark Manson.

https://markmanson.net/american-dream

"In the future, people will probably point to the 9/11 terrorist attacks as the inflection point where the US began its slow descent away from global dominance. But the truth is that the deteriorating forces have been at work within the country for decades.

By almost every major statistical measurement, the average American is worse off than they were a generation ago. Some pundits have taken to blaming the younger generations, saying that they’re entitled, self-centered, too absorbed in their smartphones to work,8 and while some of those complaints may have a grain of truth to them, the data suggests that the kids are not the problem.

Generally speaking, Americans today, especially young Americans, are the most educated and productive generation in US history:

Education in the US is as high as it's ever been, while incomes are stagnating or falling
The US population comprises more college graduates than at any other time point in history. Source: Census.gov
Source: Trading Economics
US worker productivity has steadily increased over the past 65 years. Source: Trading Economics

But they are also incredibly underemployed or unemployed:

Source: Economic Policy Institute
Underemployment and unemployment of young college graduates still lags far behind pre-recession levels. Source: Economic Policy Institute

This is for the simple reason that there are no jobs, especially middle-class jobs. Despite Obama’s impressive proclamation that he’s halved the unemployment rate since he took office, most of the drop in unemployment since the 2008 crisis has come from part-time or low-skilled jobs, and from people leaving the workforce altogether.

Source: NYTimes via National Employment Law Project
Most jobs created since the recovery began have been low-wage jobs followed by high-wage jobs. The recovery of middle-wage jobs has been lackluster, however. Source: NYTimes via National Employment Law Project
Labor force participation rate is at its lowest in decades
The labor force participation rate is the percentage of working-age people in the US who actually have jobs. Note the sustained decline following The Great Recession in 2008. Source: Trading Economics

Today, approximately 25% of people with college degrees don’t have a job and aren’t even looking.9

American Dream homeless hipster
Hipster or underemployed millennial? Or wait, is there a difference?

But why? What happened? Where did we go wrong or did we even go wrong? Who can we blame in angry Twitter rants or at cocktail parties?

Well, there’s actually no one to blame. It’s just that the strategies and beliefs that the country were founded upon have finally bumped up against their limitations..."

Not sure if the graphs will post, but if not, go read the article. It's a fascinating take.


kthnry

Excellent, depressing piece. I need to read more of his stuff. 


ml1
ridski said:
 Exactly, as pointed out brilliantly in this extraordinary and long article from Mark Manson.
https://markmanson.net/american-dream
"In the future, people will probably point to the 9/11 terrorist attacks as the inflection point where the US began its slow descent away from global dominance. But the truth is that the deteriorating forces have been at work within the country for decades.
By almost every major statistical measurement, the average American is worse off than they were a generation ago. Some pundits have taken to blaming the younger generations, saying that they’re entitled, self-centered, too absorbed in their smartphones to work,8 and while some of those complaints may have a grain of truth to them, the data suggests that the kids are not the problem.
Generally speaking, Americans today, especially young Americans, are the most educated and productive generation in US history:
Education in the US is as high as it's ever been, while incomes are stagnating or falling
The US population comprises more college graduates than at any other time point in history. Source: Census.gov
Source: Trading Economics
US worker productivity has steadily increased over the past 65 years. Source: Trading Economics
But they are also incredibly underemployed or unemployed:
Source: Economic Policy Institute
Underemployment and unemployment of young college graduates still lags far behind pre-recession levels. Source: Economic Policy Institute
This is for the simple reason that there are no jobs, especially middle-class jobs. Despite Obama’s impressive proclamation that he’s halved the unemployment rate since he took office, most of the drop in unemployment since the 2008 crisis has come from part-time or low-skilled jobs, and from people leaving the workforce altogether.
Source: NYTimes via National Employment Law Project
Most jobs created since the recovery began have been low-wage jobs followed by high-wage jobs. The recovery of middle-wage jobs has been lackluster, however. Source: NYTimes via National Employment Law Project
Labor force participation rate is at its lowest in decades
The labor force participation rate is the percentage of working-age people in the US who actually have jobs. Note the sustained decline following The Great Recession in 2008. Source: Trading Economics
Today, approximately 25% of people with college degrees don’t have a job and aren’t even looking.9
American Dream homeless hipster
Hipster or underemployed millennial? Or wait, is there a difference?
But why? What happened? Where did we go wrong or did we even go wrong? Who can we blame in angry Twitter rants or at cocktail parties?
Well, there’s actually no one to blame. It’s just that the strategies and beliefs that the country were founded upon have finally bumped up against their limitations..."
Not sure if the graphs will post, but if not, go read the article. It's a fascinating take.

 there actually is something to blame, if not someone. It's the decline of organized labor. There is plenty of wealth and prosperity. It's just not going to workers the way it did a generation ago. And there are some rumblings that young workers have had enough, and they are looking toward organizing. 

How Video Game Industry Unionization Would Happen


drummerboy

If the Dems can be damned for any one thing in the last 30 years, it's been their abandonment of unions. Their biggest failure.


Kim

The unions kept shooting themselves in the foot (or head).  

Don't blame the Democrats for the tunnel vision evidenced by the unions.


Sweetsnuggles
drummerboy said:
If the Dems can be damned for any one thing in the last 30 years, it's been their abandonment of unions. Their biggest failure.

 Totally agree.  And I would argue that the ascendancy of the right in this country can be traced to Reagan’s assault on the air traffic controllers union. 


Sweetsnuggles
tomcat said:
The unions kept shooting themselves in the foot (or head).  
Don't blame the Democrats for the tunnel vision evidenced by the unions.

What do you mean by “tunnel vision”?  It seems to me that union leadership has consistently offered concessions to management that have yielded little to no benefit to the rank and file membership.  



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