Snow now less likely Friday 4/6 and Saturday 4/7: It is not snow-ver until it is snow-ver

Might as well just up and say it: there are significant signals in the models for the possibility of accumulating snow several times in the next week (April 4 - 10).

Based on this morning's model runs, there is a 50/50 chance of a couple of inches Friday morning, which could impact the commute.

There is also a rather long-range indication for a possible storm next Tuesday. 

Both these signals have persisted through several model cycles now and need watching.  Both are rather far out in time, especially next Tuesday, and so expect the forecast to change as more data becomes available.


I'm utterly surprised that realtors from warm climates aren't sponsoring the weather section! Sarah Macyshyn will create "South Maplewood" neighborhood in St Pete before next winter.

Thank you Max... very much appreciate the information.




Next Tuesday is one of the snow day "makeup" days in next week's shortened Spring Break FWIW.



sac said:
Next Tuesday is one of the snow day "makeup" days in next week's shortened Spring Break FWIW.

I wonder if they've ever called a snow day (or delay) on a makeup day!


At least the overall outlook looks good.



peteglider said:
I'm utterly surprised that realtors from warm climates aren't sponsoring the weather section! Sarah Macyshyn will create "South Maplewood" neighborhood in St Pete before next winter. Thank you Max... very much appreciate the information.

I'm working on it.  What we loved most about St Pete is that it felt a lot like Maplewood  and South Orange but warmer.   Progressive and open minded, a vibrant (amazing) arts and culture scene and beautiful old neighborhoods that feel a lot like Maplewood but with Palm trees and bougainvillea.  I've already lured one friend who bought a house a mile from mine.  When I get down there for good ( in May). I will be getting my license so come on down.   

(sorry for hijacking the thread... I couldnt resist....



For me, the worst day shoveling snow is still better than the best day in Florida.

That said, if I was sentenced to 5 years in Florida, I would probably want to do the time in St Pete.  


If I go south it will probably either be Texas (my home state) or somewhere in the Virginia/Carolinas.  Florida is way down my list.  (Just didn't like the vibe when we have vacationed there.)  But, so far, our lead case is to stay here if we can swing it. Time will tell ...



sarahzm said:

peteglider said:
I'm utterly surprised that realtors from warm climates aren't sponsoring the weather section! Sarah Macyshyn will create "South Maplewood" neighborhood in St Pete before next winter. Thank you Max... very much appreciate the information.

I'm working on it.  What we loved most about St Pete is that it felt a lot like Maplewood  and South Orange but warmer.   Progressive and open minded, a vibrant (amazing) arts and culture scene and beautiful old neighborhoods that feel a lot like Maplewood but with Palm trees and bougainvillea.  I've already lured one friend who bought a house a mile from mine.  When I get down there for good ( in May). I will be getting my license so come on down.   
(sorry for hijacking the thread... I couldnt resist....

During our life times I suppose we are subject to tons and tons of advice.  When I was a child someone for whom I had much respect once told me that "living in an area that has four distinct seasons is the best situation for one's mental health.  Surprising years later a friend from Maplewood in essence said the same thing.   I have no video



author said:

During our life times I suppose we are subject to tons and tons of advice.  When I was a child someone for whom I had much respect once told me that "living in an area that has four distinct seasons is the best situation for one's mental health.  Surprising years later a friend from Maplewood in essence said the same thing.   I have no video

A distinct spring would be welcome. Don’t seem to get as many of those (or distinct autumns) any more.


There is, as of this morning, an active winter weather pattern setting up for tomorrow through Tuesday.  The are several opportunities within the time frame for snow.

First, a short, small snowfall, probably only an inch or so, is eected tomorrow morning.  This ould come during the morning commute and make for some slippery conditions.  Warmer temps and possible rain in the afternoon melt the snow away.

Saturday, the precipitation changes back to snow and 2 - 3" are possible, with some upside potential beyond that if things really get going.

At this time it is unclear whether the airmass remains cold enough for Tuesday to also be snow, but it is possible.  Not confident in giving a depth projection for that one yet.


This is simply wonderful news!


So so so excited to see the NWS Winter Weather Map showing 2-3" over Morristown on Saturday!  Great day for my daughter's outdoor lacrosse practice!  


They should use the orange balls so they can find them.


There has been a consistent trend over the last 24 hours towards rain for both tomorrow and Saturday, resulting in a much less significant snow signal in the forecast.

What I expect overnight tonight and into tomorrow starts as rain after midnight, changing over to wet, mostly non-accumulating snow for a period in the morning, then back into rain.

Saturday is similar, with less chance of snow and a greater chance that the entire system checks south and misses us completely.


This morning, mixed light rain and snow with no accumulation likely.

Tomorrow, rain.  Some snow may mix in, but no accumulation likely.

Tuesday, rain.



Max--It sure has been a busy spring for you so far. Thanks again for being our go-to source.



It's lightly sticking to the grass in Basking Ridge.

We lived out here for about 4 years in the late 90s before moving back to Maplewood. We drove back and forth a lot and there was a line around Exit 43 on 78 where if it was snowing in Basking Ridge it often turned to rain (or nothing at all) as we drove east. Probably something to do with those Watchung Mountains.


Calendar?!?! It will remain Winter until I say so! 

Take the kids sledding and to Starbucks afterwards. NOT Dunkin' Donuts! If you go there so help me...

God 




mrincredible said:

It's lightly sticking to the grass in Basking Ridge.

We lived out here for about 4 years in the late 90s before moving back to Maplewood. We drove back and forth a lot and there was a line around Exit 43 on 78 where if it was snowing in Basking Ridge it often turned to rain (or nothing at all) as we drove east. Probably something to do with those Watchung Mountains.

Temperature lapse rate of a bit over 5 degrees Fahrenheit per 1000 feet.   So, the 200-300 foot increased elevation can be all it takes when temps are right on the cusp.  Plus some orographic lifting with the right wind direction. 



catch22 said:
  Plus some orographic lifting with the right wind direction. 

Please leave my private life out of this discussion.   oh oh 



catch22 said:

mrincredible said:

It's lightly sticking to the grass in Basking Ridge.

We lived out here for about 4 years in the late 90s before moving back to Maplewood. We drove back and forth a lot and there was a line around Exit 43 on 78 where if it was snowing in Basking Ridge it often turned to rain (or nothing at all) as we drove east. Probably something to do with those Watchung Mountains.
Temperature lapse rate of a bit over 5 degrees Fahrenheit per 1000 feet.   So, the 200-300 foot increased elevation can be all it takes when temps are right on the cusp.  Plus some orographic lifting with the right wind direction. 

I saw this during that first storm in March when I had a doctor appointment that Friday morning in Livingston.  There was no snow at all sticking, although I could see flakes in the air at my house (near Max's) in the Maplecrest area.  I drove up over the S-curves and it was solid white up there.  5 minutes, 200 (?) feet elevation made all the difference.  (The temperatures were hovering around 32.)


Yes it always gets more white as you drive to Livingston.

 blank stare 



mrincredible said:
Yes it always gets more white as you drive to Livingston.  blank stare 

LOL!

But I was actually referring to South Orange (top of the S curves.)



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