Hurricane Maria

As much as I would like to remain in denial, the Jersey Shore, Long Island, and especialy the Delmarva Peninsula are  now within the forecast cone for Jose.  

While a direct hit on the northeast is still unlikely, and our area even less likely than the Delmarva or even Long Island, it is possible.  More likely, by midweek next week the shore in particular could be seeing high surf and some rain and gusts.

This storm has been somewhat erratic, circling out in the Atlantic for several days.  Overall, though, the models have been trending slightly closer to shore each day.  They still indicate at worst a glancing blow from a weak hurricane, mostly on the rainy rather than the windy side.  Nonetheless, I will keep a close eye on Jose and let you know if it is time to buy milk and eggs.

There are two more systems out in the Atlantic at this time that have the potential to become storms, so this would probably be a good time for everyone to check out www.ready.gov and get themselves a storm kit and plan.


Ugh.  Thanks for the heads-up Max.


Any idea when the sun will come out in Cape May? LOL 


Model consensus continues to grow this morning for an offshore track for Jose.  Although this track would keep the center of the storm out to sea, Jose is expected to be a large storm, if not a particularly powerful one, and effects of the storm may well touch us Tuesday in the form of a blustery rainy day.  While more severe effects are unlikely, especially away from the shore, we are not entirely out of range.


Any thoughts about Maria ??



Near impossible to know at this juncture, given how it's interactions with Jose will be so critical to its forecast.  

sarahzm said:

Any thoughts about Maria ??




WxNut2.0 said:

Near impossible to know at this juncture, given how it's interactions with Jose will be so critical to its forecast.  
sarahzm said:

Any thoughts about Maria ??

For our area.

I think for the Carribbean Islands, Puerto Rico, and the DR & Haiti, Maria is a big issue.



max_weisenfeld said:

I think for the Carribbean Islands, Puerto Rico, and the DR & Haiti, Maria is a big issue.

First Jose, now this.

WxNut2.0 said:

Near impossible to know at this juncture, given how it's interactions with Jose will be so critical to its forecast.  

A depressing thought. A future of so many hurricanes that often they'll be "bumping" each other. 

If that happens a lot, the "experience" will be used to update and probably lead to more accurate hurricane tracking models.


is our current malodorous humid air connected to Jose?



No

drummerboy said:

is our current malodorous humid air connected to Jose?



Forgive me, I think I phrased this wrong. It's not so much that they'll "bump" (which is actually not completely uncommon. It's called the fujiwhara effect), so much as we need to see how Jose evolves and impacts the larger scale flow field before we can figure out what maria is going to do.  

BG9 said:



max_weisenfeld said:

I think for the Carribbean Islands, Puerto Rico, and the DR & Haiti, Maria is a big issue.

First Jose, now this.
WxNut2.0 said:

Near impossible to know at this juncture, given how it's interactions with Jose will be so critical to its forecast.  

A depressing thought. A future of so many hurricanes that often they'll be "bumping" each other. 

If that happens a lot, the "experience" will be used to update and probably lead to more accurate hurricane tracking models.



Tropical storm watches now up for the whole NJ coast up through MA. Notice the weird loop in the track at the end. This is what's going to complicate/be complicated by Maria.


Has a tropical storm/hurricane/cyclone ever "bumped" into another?


Yes, it happens.  It is a very complex, and therefore unpredictable phenomenon.  In the case of these two storms, the models are leaning towards Jose being absorbed by Maria and the whole thing staying offshore, but margin of uncertainty is large and Maria could be close enough to shore that the coast could be impacted. 

At this time, I would catagorize this as a cautious, keep one eye out, situation but not an immenant risk.


Off shore for us, right? But terrible for the Caribbean still?


Busy season.  Norma and Otis heading towards Mexican Pacific Coast.  

I like to check out global wind patterns on this really cool real time graphic.  https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-86.97,32.42,818/loc=-56.909,16.841

But lately it has been disturbing to keep seeing two or more major storms swirling in each major ocean.


I can't imagine being those poor people who are already devastated, yet are on track for more storms and hurricanes! 



callista said:

I can't imagine being those poor people who are already devastated, yet are on track for more storms and hurricanes! 

I agree.  As the weather weenies say above, it is way too early to tell.  But if Maria strengthens the way some of the weather television shouters are saying it is going to be really ugly for the Caribbean nations yet again.


That is an amazing website.  Thanks for sharing.

It is like watching an animated Van Gogh painting.

mfpark said:

Busy season.  Norma and Otis heading towards Mexican Pacific Coast.  

I like to check out global wind patterns on this really cool real time graphic.  https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-86.97,32.42,818/loc=-56.909,16.841

But lately it has been disturbing to keep seeing two or more major storms swirling in each major ocean.



Did you notice you can click and drag and turn the globe around to see other areas?  I like to check out wind patterns where my friend lives in Nunavut (all but the North Pole).


alias said:

That is an amazing website.  Thanks for sharing.

It is like watching an animated Van Gogh painting.
mfpark said:

Busy season.  Norma and Otis heading towards Mexican Pacific Coast.  

I like to check out global wind patterns on this really cool real time graphic.  https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-86.97,32.42,818/loc=-56.909,16.841

But lately it has been disturbing to keep seeing two or more major storms swirling in each major ocean.



That wind map is great. I have a couple of other wind maps.

This one is global. So is this one.

This one is for the US only. I like to check it before I ride my bike, because sometimes the headwind during my commute to work can be brutal. I can zoom in (on my computer) by double-clicking, but I don't know if it's possible to zoom out.


Tom:   There is a unzoom button on the US map.  Thanks for sharing these!


Funny enough the west Pacific, which is normally home to a breed of monster hurricanes virtually never seen in the Atlantic, is almost totally dead this year. 

mfpark said:

Busy season.  Norma and Otis heading towards Mexican Pacific Coast.  

I like to check out global wind patterns on this really cool real time graphic.  https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-86.97,32.42,818/loc=-56.909,16.841

But lately it has been disturbing to keep seeing two or more major storms swirling in each major ocean.



True.  And for shear number of Atlantic storms, we have a way to go to catch '05


it's not too early to tell for Naria and the Caribbean, right? It's coming and strengthening. Too early to tell where it'll wind up from our perspective but not for them. 


Looks like they've dialed back and the storm is forecast to turn northeast over the Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. True? Thanks!


Maria will likely be declared a cat 5 at the next advisory. 160 mph sustained winds on the last recon pass, 926 mb central pressure. Horrific for Dominica.

Edit: now official.


? Which storm? I thought I just saw Maria escalating to Cat 3 and heading right over PR DR, T&C and Bahamas? That's the worrisome one at this point. 


Maria underwent what's known as rapid intensification (as one might guess). Very conducive synoptic environment for this. Bad, bad news for Dominica which has a population 44x that of Barbuda, the latter of which was actually on the "weak" side of Irma, for reference.

conandrob240 said:

? Which storm? I thought I just saw Maria escalating to Cat 3 and heading right over PR DR, T&C and Bahamas? That's the worrisome one at this point. 



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