Hurricane Florence and Potential Local Impacts

waxwingstwo said:
 We live about 150 miles inland from the closest shore point. Our home is on a ridge top. While we do not expect flooding to be an issue, it looks fairly certain at this point that wind damage, particularly falling trees, is a real concern. We will be very lucky if none fall on our home. 

And here’s hoping for some good fortune for you...


dave said:
WxNut,
What do you make of typhoon Mangkhut headed our way in Hong Kong?  Looks like a direct hit by (our) Sunday.  
(think I'll make this a separate thread)


My apologies Dave, just now seeing this. It does appear Mangkhut will come very close to if not hit Hong Kong dead on. Fortunately, it will be weakening as it does. That said, it still will likely be a powerful cat 2/3.


waxwingstwo said:
 We live about 150 miles inland from the closest shore point. Our home is on a ridge top. While we do not expect flooding to be an issue, it looks fairly certain at this point that wind damage, particularly falling trees, is a real concern. We will be very lucky if none fall on our home. 

 I would still be rather concerned about rain-induced flooding. This thing could stall and drop a lot of rain.


From the NWS Wilmington, NC:

This will likely be the storm of a lifetime for portions of the
Carolina coast, and that`s saying a lot given the impacts
we`ve seen from Hurricanes Diana, Hugo, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd,
and Matthew. I can`t emphasize enough the potential for
unbelievable damage from wind, storm surge, and inland flooding
with this storm.

This thing is getting even more complicated too. All of a sudden the models are starting to do all sorts of weird things with respect to track. Weak large-scale steering flow and small-scale interactions with the ridge to the north. Even at this (relatively) short lead-time, we're still uncertain. Goes to show you exactly how much research we need to do on these things and how best to model them.

Long story short though: if you or anyone you know is anywhere in the coastal Carolinas, they need to leave or face a real threat of death. The hurricane warnings are mentioning buildings being uninhabitable for extended periods. 


WxNut2.0, is Savannah still basically in the clear, and if so, why do some of the cones still include Savannah in them? Parent lives there. No evacuations in Georgia at this time, that I know of, but dang close to S. Carolina. Thanks for all your updates on this!


SZM said:
WxNut2.0, is Savannah still basically in the clear, and if so, why do some of the cones still include Savannah in them? Parent lives there. No evacuations in Georgia at this time, that I know of, but dang close to S. Carolina. Thanks for all your updates on this!

It's hard to say that Savannah is 100% in the clear, but I'd handicap the chance of a direct hit as extremely low. The cones are based upon climatological averages in error, and therefore they appear pretty big. That said, models have trended south today, so it's difficult to make a guarantee. Savannah will see rain and wind but I highly doubt its considerably worse than that.


Edit: not so sure of this now. See below.


our Florida cousins have been corresponding; it’s really hard to plan evacuations when both parents are in their 90s, one largely immobile and the other fairly cognitively impaired. Thank goodness they’re not in as much danger as other places, but it’s still scary managing all this on your own. 

Thank you, all, for helping us help them to stay calm and prepared. 

And FWIW, we’re all thinking of you, hoping none of it is as bad as predicted, and that maybe some of that rain can find its way to us...? 

Dave, we’re keeping fingers crossed for you, too.


SZM said:
WxNut2.0, is Savannah still basically in the clear, and if so, why do some of the cones still include Savannah in them? Parent lives there. No evacuations in Georgia at this time, that I know of, but dang close to S. Carolina. Thanks for all your updates on this!

May have jinxed myself in my previous response. I’ll caution heavily this is one model solution, but this is why I’m weary of ruling anything out. Georgia is definitely still in play, albeit with a likely weakened storm. This scenario is entirely plausible. Would also be a pretty terrible scenario for NC/SC, as an intense hurricane stalls pretty much along the coast. Again, one model solution, but lots of models seem to be trending this way so there may be some credence here. 


Welp, this storm is probably the weirdest one I've followed in the last ten years. NHC is now reflecting the southwestern jog shown in the models in their official track forecast. While this likely precludes the hurricane from being a category 4 at landfall, it's sort of semantic. As a result of this bizarre track, Florence will be in the perfect location to pile extremely high storm surge into both NC and SC for an extended period of time. The expectation is that the storm will park itself as a major hurricane just offshore for 24 hours, with hurricane force wind, albeit perhaps not at 140 mph, hitting the NC/SC border. In some ways, this is sort of a worst case scenario for the SE US.


My best friend is in Savannah. Her husband is involved in local government stuff and he was called in to an “emergency meeting” this morning. Yesterday, they assumed the storm would pass them. Now they are worried and contingency plans are being made. Quietly for now. 


mammabear said:
My best friend is in Savannah. Her husband is involved in local government stuff and he was called in to an “emergency meeting” this morning. Yesterday, they assumed the storm would pass them. Now they are worried and contingency plans are being made. Quietly for now. 

 I still don't think Savannah gets hit by the storm particularly hard, aside from the rainfall. That said, planning for the worst is a pretty good idea. This storm isn't really following any rules.


Totally agree with Dr. Wxnut, with the slightly boastful caveat that I called the southward jog yesterday (I get no real points for this as I get cut a lot more slack as an amateur).

This is what I just posted on the FB page: 

With this storm, it is better to talk about the effects rather than the technical details. "Making landfall" in this case would be better stated as understanding *when the effects of the storm will be felt.* Due to the large size of the storm, and the projected path and slowing of the storm's movement, the entire coastal areas of North and South Carolina (and a some of southern tidewater Virginia) remain under threat.

This is not because forecasting models are inaccurate. It is because the storm will slow down and meander around the coastal area. Winds and rain, surf and tidal surges will begin affecting the coast significantly tomorrow, and will continue to move towards and along the coast for up to 3 days. Large areas of the coast and well inland could easily see 1, 2 or more feet of rain in this period, leading to widespread flooding. It is the surge at the coast and the rain and flooding inland that is the greatest threat from this storm, much more so than the wind, although Florence will almost certainly be at least a cat 3 storm as it approaches the coast tomorrow.

Some notes about the warning cone. Although warnings do not extend to the Charleston and Savannah areas, if I had any people down there I would be telling them to prepare as if they did, specifically to be aware of potential flood risks from heavy rain and tidal surges. The more northerly areas are encountering gas shortages as well as shortages of other supplies. The extent of the damage could lead to longer outages than in the past, and the track record of this administration in disaster relief is not one that inspires confidence.

If you have friends or relatives in the warning areas, encourage them to prepare as instructed by their local authorities. If they are encouraged to leave, tell them to get out now.



daughter is in Savannah and SCAD has been on top of storms our entire time there. There are a lot of students to evacuate/relocate. I'm sure they'll err on the side of caution if need be, but so far there are no evacuation warnings.


shh said:
daughter is in Savannah and SCAD has been on top of storms our entire time there. There are a lot of students to evacuate/relocate. I'm sure they'll err on the side of caution if need be, but so far there are no evacuation warnings.

 No need, yet. Georgia is likely 4-5 days out. The track can be uncertain that far out.


One kind of incredible technical detail not being talked about (and rightfully so, at least not yet) is that the GFS (and the new experimental GFS-FV3) hinted at this track before the generally superior European model. A nice win for American modeling. 


Also: https://twitter.com/astro_alex/status/1039870760343543814?s=21


Whether this is accurate or not I can't necessarily say, but this is someone who's fairly credible. If true, this is just horrifying. 



I have a cyber-friend who lives in Jacksonville, NC, on the coast. He told me his family has evacuated, and he is staying. He's been through lots of bad storms. But that makes no sense to me. Why should surviving storms make this storm survivable?

And the NC government is pretty amazing:

North Carolina didn't like science on sea levels … so passed a law against it


Tom_Reingold said:
I have a cyber-friend who lives in Jacksonville, NC, on the coast. He told me his family has evacuated, and he is staying. He's been through lots of bad storms. But that makes no sense to me. Why should surviving storms make this storm survivable?

And the NC government is pretty amazing:
North Carolina didn't like science on sea levels … so passed a law against it

No no no no nooooo he needs to leave. This is like saying, "Ive been shot before, so I'm impervious to bullets now." 


WxNut2.0 said:
Whether this is accurate or not I can't necessarily say, but this is someone who's fairly credible. If true, this is just horrifying. 




I have just read the NYT article regarding storm prep in the Carolinas.  I was stunned to read that the mayor of Nags Head, NC -- on the Outer Banks with Ocracoke! -- has decided to stay in place with his wife.  LOL 


"But some residents in evacuation zones were hauling in porch furniture and stocking up on food and water. One of them was the mayor of Nags Head, N.C., Ben Cahoon, who said he and his wife had decided to stay in the small Outer Banks beach town despite a mandatory evacuation order that he had helped develop.  "There are folks like myself, who have lived here a long time, who sort of have a sense about these things," said Mr. Cahoon, 56.  "Whether that's entirely rational or not, that's something else."  

The mayor's personal preparations have been fairly modest:  He has purchased only about six gallons of water, some cans of soup, peanut butter and crackers.  He has a gas range he said he could use for cooking if his home loses electricity.


nytimes.com:  "We Don't Need This:"  The Carolinas Brace for Hurricane Florence

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/us/storm-hurricane-florence.html





people that stay put when there's a mandatory evacuation warning are being reckless but also selfish. If you make that call against mandatory evacuation, you should not be entitled to any rescue or support services. 


conandrob240 said:
people that stay put when there's a mandatory evacuation warning are being reckless but also selfish. If you make that call against mandatory evacuation, you should not be entitled to any rescue or support services. 

They've already stated they won't be doing any rescue operations during the hurricanes. Mandatory evacuations basically mean you're on your own and that's what will happen, unfortunately. 


Would more people evacuate if it was called "Hurricane Thanos"? 


WxNut2.0 said:


conandrob240 said:
people that stay put when there's a mandatory evacuation warning are being reckless but also selfish. If you make that call against mandatory evacuation, you should not be entitled to any rescue or support services. 
They've already stated they won't be doing any rescue operations during the hurricanes. Mandatory evacuations basically mean you're on your own and that's what will happen, unfortunately. 

 And they should be given the advice I once heard (before Katrina?) to write their names on their arms with indelible ink, to aid in identification.  Maybe that would help them visualize the threat?


WxNut2.0 said:


conandrob240 said:
people that stay put when there's a mandatory evacuation warning are being reckless but also selfish. If you make that call against mandatory evacuation, you should not be entitled to any rescue or support services. 
They've already stated they won't be doing any rescue operations during the hurricanes. Mandatory evacuations basically mean you're on your own and that's what will happen, unfortunately. 

Then they need a financial deterrent. Fines or insurance revoked. If their lives aren’t important to them, maybe $ would be


susan1014 said:


WxNut2.0 said:

conandrob240 said:
people that stay put when there's a mandatory evacuation warning are being reckless but also selfish. If you make that call against mandatory evacuation, you should not be entitled to any rescue or support services. 
They've already stated they won't be doing any rescue operations during the hurricanes. Mandatory evacuations basically mean you're on your own and that's what will happen, unfortunately. 
 And they should be given the advice I once heard (before Katrina?) to write their names on their arms with indelible ink, to aid in identification.  Maybe that would help them visualize the threat?

This was said about Harvey, while I was en route to chase it. But gotta figure thats more of a scare tactic than anything. The warnings often say the words "certain death". If thats not enough of a deterrent, not sure what is.


Was the downgrade to a category 3 expected this soon?


conandrob240 said:


WxNut2.0 said:

conandrob240 said:
people that stay put when there's a mandatory evacuation warning are being reckless but also selfish. If you make that call against mandatory evacuation, you should not be entitled to any rescue or support services. 
They've already stated they won't be doing any rescue operations during the hurricanes. Mandatory evacuations basically mean you're on your own and that's what will happen, unfortunately. 
Then they need a financial deterrent. Fines or insurance revoked. If their lives aren’t important to them, maybe $ would be

Not everything is about money.

Besides, how do you enforce something like that? Have the police survey everyone to ask if they will stay? Like they have time for that or won't be lied to. Find someone dead and then fine them?

Why do people stay put during hurricanes?


jamie said:
Was the downgrade to a category 3 expected this soon?

 I don't think so. Two days ago I looked and they estimated to be around 150 at this time.

Anyway, a real danger will be flooding should the hurricane hang around.


GOES-16 Image from a few minutes ago.

The island in the corner, lower left, is Great Abaco in the Bahamas.

Storm is about 300 miles in diameter now.  Tropical storm-force winds were measured this morning 100 miles northeast of the eye.


jamie said:
Was the downgrade to a category 3 expected this soon?

 The forecast picked it up about 18 - 24 hours ago.  There were a series of eyewall replacement cycles and some shear.  But it is likely to still be cat 3 through early Friday.  Enough to drive several tide cycles well over normal height.


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