COVID- 19 Back to normal?

drummerboy said:

I wonder if we could achieve some kind of localized herd immunity? Regions with higher vaccination rates would be better protected than other regions?

I guess one problem is that if there are areas that are severely under-vaccinated, there are greater odds of a vaccine resistant strain arising, threatening everyone else.

 You are right about the danger posed by variants.  You also have to realize that our area is far from  isolated.  A large percentage of our residents work outside our area. Many travel regularly regionally, nationally, and even internationally.  Therefore, we are dependent upon herd immunity extending well beyond our borders.

I just verified that Maplewood senior transportation service is slowly being restored to pre-pandemic levels.  The phone line for scheduling Maplewood Senior Bus Service, 973-763-5287, is up an running again.  call that number for up to date information as the situation is fluid.  Does anyone know the situation in South Orange?

drummerboy said:

I wonder if we could achieve some kind of localized herd immunity? Regions with higher vaccination rates would be better protected than other regions?

I guess one problem is that if there are areas that are severely under-vaccinated, there are greater odds of a vaccine resistant strain arising, threatening everyone else.

Was wondering this too.  Unsurprisingly, the northeast has a much better vaccination rate than the anti-vaxxer parts of the country. 

The outbreak of a monster, truly vaccine resistant strain remains a theoretical concern at this point as far as I understand it.  In that regard, I read a recent CNN article that vaccinated front line health care workers in India were doing very well.  Who knows.

drummerboy said:

I wonder if we could achieve some kind of localized herd immunity? Regions with higher vaccination rates would be better protected than other regions?

 Only by establishing border controls....

jmitw said:

How do people feel about 2 fully vaccinated friends visiting each others homes, without masks and while social distancing with doors/windows open?  NJ law says all indoor 'gatherings' require masks.  CDC says small groups of vaccinated adults can gather without masks.  Neither has been or will be in any crowds like stadium...or any parties.

I don't think that NJ Law governs personal gatherings inside private homes, does it?  (As opposed to some incorporated or "official" group choosing a private home for a meeting.)  I think that the CDC guideline makes sense.  We haven't really done it yet, but likely will soon.  I believe that the CDC guideline also says that vaccinated adults can visit with a single household of low-risk unvaccinated people, such as vaccinated grandparents visiting their grandchildren.  We don't have grandchildren but if a situation like that comes up, we will likely still be masking.  My spouse and I are empty nesters and both are now just past our two week post-vaccine period.  Our local adult child who got second shot this past week is still keeping her mask on when visiting inside our house until she gets past the two-week mark.  (Her decision, with our protection in mind; we were not going to require it of her.)  

It will be a long time before we are ready to go to crowded indoor gatherings, but we did get August tickets for the Immersive Van Gogh exhibit in NYC.  That may well be our first large public event.  (I believe they are also going to be enforcing some distancing/capacity controls there so we'll see how crowded it is then I guess.

max_weisenfeld said:

drummerboy said:

I wonder if we could achieve some kind of localized herd immunity? Regions with higher vaccination rates would be better protected than other regions?

 Only by establishing border controls....

I don't think that's necessarily true.  My understanding of the way herd immunity works is that if someone gets infected, it doesn't spread enough to become a problem. The virus dies off because it can't find enough un-vaccinated hosts. So if you had Region A and Region B, where A was highly vaccinated and B was not, if someone who was infected from B came into A and infected someone, Region A would still be protected.

i.e. herd immunity doesn't mean you'll never have infections, it just means that it will not spread enough to be pandemic.

I think.

The issue of variants excepted.

drummerboy said:

I don't think that's necessarily true.  My understanding of the way herd immunity works is that if someone gets infected, it doesn't spread enough to become a problem. The virus dies off because it can't find enough un-vaccinated hosts. So if you had Region A and Region B, where A was highly vaccinated and B was not, if someone who was infected from B came into A and infected someone, Region A would still be protected.

i.e. herd immunity doesn't mean you'll never have infections, it just means that it will not spread enough to be pandemic.

I think.

The issue of variants excepted.

There is serious consideration being given to booster shots and not just because of the variant issue.  Tetanus shots need to be repeated every so often because the immunity they offer is not life-long. The same may be true for some or all of the COVID - 19 vaccines currently available. Then, there is the question of what happens, even when herd immunity has been reached, to those who are not vaccinated or no longer immune, when an infected person comes in contact with them.  The recent measles outbreak is just one example of what can happen in this scenario and COVID - 19 is potentially more deadly than measles.

I'm feeling more optimistic about the state's vaccination goal after seeing this story:

Half of adults are now fully vaccinated as N.J. reports 13 new COVID deaths, 673 cases

Seventy percent of NJ adults would be 4.7 million people, and as of yesterday, 4.4 million residents have  received at least one dose.  I would think we could get 300K more people vaccinated, particularly when the state is trying now to get hard to reach people vaccinated.  Certainly there are going to be people who refuse vaccinations, but I have to believe there are at least 300,000 people in the state who want the vaccine but haven't been able to get it due to personal circumstances.

Numbers seem crazy good today per the NJ Data Hub. Only 565 new cases (both tests combined).  The numbers were good yesterday too but I chalked it up to low testing due the Sunday/Mothers Day combo. Yet puzzingly (to me) the transmission rate has been creeping up for days.  Now .94. 

sac said:

jmitw said:

How do people feel about 2 fully vaccinated friends visiting each others homes, without masks and while social distancing with doors/windows open?  NJ law says all indoor 'gatherings' require masks.  CDC says small groups of vaccinated adults can gather without masks.  Neither has been or will be in any crowds like stadium...or any parties.

I don't think that NJ Law governs personal gatherings inside private homes, does it?  (As opposed to some incorporated or "official" group choosing a private home for a meeting.)  I think that the CDC guideline makes sense.  We haven't really done it yet, but likely will soon.  I believe that the CDC guideline also says that vaccinated adults can visit with a single household of low-risk unvaccinated people, such as vaccinated grandparents visiting their grandchildren.  We don't have grandchildren but if a situation like that comes up, we will likely still be masking.  My spouse and I are empty nesters and both are now just past our two week post-vaccine period.  Our local adult child who got second shot this past week is still keeping her mask on when visiting inside our house until she gets past the two-week mark.  (Her decision, with our protection in mind; we were not going to require it of her.)  

It will be a long time before we are ready to go to crowded indoor gatherings, but we did get August tickets for the Immersive Van Gogh exhibit in NYC.  That may well be our first large public event.  (I believe they are also going to be enforcing some distancing/capacity controls there so we'll see how crowded it is then I guess.

 law is unclear..it just says gatherings.....i visit a close friend at his condo, where I do work at his home (pet care, tech support, some minor home maintenance).  his neighbor is IRATE that I am there.  in April 2020, he got the PD to order me to go home even though I met the guidelines even at that time to be outside (with no one else around...friend is out sometimes with me 6 feet away or we talked through his glass door) his home. now that irate neighbor is completely fixated, screaming for me to get out...as well as screaming about other unrelated delusions.  I tried talking to PD a year ago, telling them it was escalating...yet they continue to enable the irate neighbor.  (long story I don't want to give details publicly).  I tried talking to them again this week....basically they told me to go f myself by their attitudes.  there has been NUMEROUS incidents of harassment  there are indications he is sitting at his window, stalking  us waiting to run out and confront us....funny thing is, i have a pic of this guy outside without a mask.  he has had a non house hold member over, has traveled a couple times, but I'm not allowed to visit a close friend as per guidelines....i now have my camera ready to record at all times.  there are witnesses.  I just want to know what legal standing I have to be able to visit a friend (I need to go there for various reasons).  I am disabled, the cats force me to be physically active which i medically need.  this neighbor is irate whether I am inside or outside.  its like he thinks I am spreading covid through the walls.  I looked it up, there are rare cases of germs spreading.  in the one situation, it was because there is a through the wall vent system for the bathrooms (and no windows), the other was from toilet flushing....I use my own bathroom before I leave the house and don't need to use my friends while I am there....and even if I did the risk is extremely low...i think the case involved 5 residents having covid and using the toilet a lot.  Both my friend and i are single with no close family.  For most of last year we were a covid bubble as we didn't interact with others at all....I still don't simply because I can't....my health is so bad I struggle to get to the grocery store and then to my friends for a couple hours...and some days I can't even do that.  I have then been so exhausted I was practically in tears trying to make a simple dinner..i medically need that time, physically and emotionally...but I am constantly on edge that PD will allow him to have me ordered home again or otherwise harass me.  I get it this guy is mentally ill, but PD has no excuse for their poor judgement....I don't trust PD to not treat me like the criminal for not violating covid rules....I never approach the neighbor, if I see him coming I walk away.  The last incident, I was inside reading the news on my phone, my friend had gone to drop something in the mailbox and stopped to talk to a neighbor across the street..when irate neighbor came running screaming about some delusion and to get me out of there.  It appears he had been watching my friend out the window waiting for him to come home to go after him.

I am carrying around copies of CDC guidelines, NJ laws, and my vaccine card....but PD seems to go by some other rules...including harassment and stalking is not a crime

I also have legit issues for not wearing a mask when I am outside/distancing...I have nearly passed out from the hot air due to an underlying condition, i have allodynia (pain when you shouldn't--both from the mask on my ears/neck as well as diaphragm because of the way I breathe with a mask on), mobility issues....the cats are mobile trip hazards, I find I trip more more with a mask on...I can manage in a store or other reasonably controlled situation, but when i am active in a private setting, I can't do it....my balance is so bad, a cat actually managed to grab me by the ankles (sweatpants) and throw me to the ground!  so minor things a typical person wouldn't have a problem with can cause be to be seriously injured.

Which town?

bub said:

Numbers seem crazy good today per the NJ Data Hub. Only 565 new cases (both tests combined).  The numbers were good yesterday too but I chalked it up to low testing due the Sunday/Mothers Day combo. Yet puzzingly (to me) the transmission rate has been creeping up for days.  Now .94. 

 one of the stories I read explained that the increase is spurious. It appears to have gone up because thousands of duplicate records were purged from the data base on one day last week, which made the transmission rate appear to go down for a few days.  Then when it returned to "normal" it appeared to be increasing.

Re our old debate about the risk of outdoor transmission, this NYT article says that the CDC has been exaggerating it or at least providing confusingly misleading info tending to exaggerate it:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/11/briefing/outdoor-covid-transmission-cdc-number.html

ml1 said:

bub said:

Numbers seem crazy good today per the NJ Data Hub. Only 565 new cases (both tests combined).  The numbers were good yesterday too but I chalked it up to low testing due the Sunday/Mothers Day combo. Yet puzzingly (to me) the transmission rate has been creeping up for days.  Now .94. 

 one of the stories I read explained that the increase is spurious. It appears to have gone up because thousands of duplicate records were purged from the data base on one day last week, which made the transmission rate appear to go down for a few days.  Then when it returned to "normal" it appeared to be increasing.

 The overall trend line seems consistent (and downward) when the outlier data ml1 mentions is netted out.  this corresponds to the Johns Hopkins data as well, which is averaged to provide some smoothing

I agree that the decline numbers look wonderful.  And then I look at the big picture, and realize the current steep declines look very much like the curves we saw last May...

Vaccines are amazing, and our family's personal worry level is going down rapidly as each member gets vaccinated (our 14 year olds will be getting their vaccines as soon as possible).

But that may not mean we are done. More recent assessments suggest that 70% is likely too low an estimate for real "herd immunity", given the more transmissible strains now prevalent. I suspect that we will move toward an uneasy "new normal", where we still have modest outbreaks (especially next fall/winter), where the immune-compromised must stay somewhat isolated, where much of the world lags behind us in vaccination and recovery, and where those of us who follow the science are keeping watch on each major new variant, in our very interconnected world. Vaccine (and booster) avoidance will be on ongoing issue.

But I'm an optimist that the worst is behind us, at least in the vaccine-rich US.  Now we must start working harder to help get the rest of the world vaccinated.

susan1014 said:

I agree that the decline numbers look wonderful.  And then I look at the big picture, and realize the current steep declines look very much like the curves we saw last May...

The main difference between now and last May is that last May we were locked down, and now we are already in many ways reopening already

max_weisenfeld said:

The main difference between now and last May is that last May we were locked down, and now we are already in many ways reopening already

Another difference is that we now know a lot more about COVID spread and treatment than we did last May.  We also have readily available effective vaccines in our region which did not exist a year ago.  

joan_crystal said:

max_weisenfeld said:

The main difference between now and last May is that last May we were locked down, and now we are already in many ways reopening already

Another difference is that we now know a lot more about COVID spread and treatment than we did last May.  We also have readily available effective vaccines in our region which did not exist a year ago.  

 They tend to fly under the radar of the vaccine news but there are promising treatments around now too.  I'm particularly interested in the nasal spray Sanotize, the active ingredient of which is nitric (not nitrous) oxide.  NO has long been in use and proven safe.  Sanotize has shown remarkable results in multiple trials so far.  When approved, the product will actually be over the counter.  I'm wondering if anti-vaxxers will be willing to use something like that when it's on the market.

"If you’re vaccinated and you're outside, put aside your mask," Fauci says

“We’ve got to make that transition,” Fauci said. “If you are vaccinated, you don’t have to wear a mask outside. It would be a very unusual situation, if you were going into a completely crowded situation where people are essentially falling all over each other, then you wear a mask. But any other time, if you’re vaccinated and you’re outside, put aside your mask. You don’t have to wear it.”

NJ hospitalizations dropped below 1000 today for the first time in a long time.

• If you are fully vaccinated, you can resume activities that you did prior to the pandemic.
• Fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, except where required by federal, state, local, tribal, or territorial laws, rules, and regulations, including local business and workplace guidance.
• If you haven’t been vaccinated yet, find a vaccine.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated.html#vaccinated

I feel like I read today that Massachusetts reported zero Covid-19 deaths today, for the first time in many months. May NJ soon follow...

According to Candice Davenport during a  meeting I attended yesterday, Maplewood is still waiting for direction from the State of NJ before relaxing social distancing and face covering policies.  For now, even the fully vaccinated still need to wear a face covering in municipal parks, Maplewood Village, and at events that draw a crowd.   

From today's NYT. We're up to 55% of all NJ residents with at least one vaccine dose. And the rate of new infections is now very low. Anyone who can be vaccinated really should. 

And to those who won't get vaccinated -- you're welcome. 

I really feel bad for our children who were robbed of a year of school and who were forced into so many restrictions, when really they were never at risk, at least not more than normal life risks.   It is possible they will never make up this year of lost learning and they will have been instilled with an attitude of fear towards others in this impressionable time.   What a sad thing.    When thinking about immunity please don't forget how many people have been infected and have immunity from that.    In addition to the known cases in NJ, 3 out of 4 cases or so were not detected, largely because they were asymptomatic.    By now we probably have at least 85% of the state with some immunity and the plunging numbers confirm this.   

How do you still not understand that the children who might not be at risk can still pass the virus along to older folks who are at much higher risk? Also did you not realize that there are adults in the schools as well? 

I am very sad that my daughter missed her senior year of high school. But she willingly stayed remote (our school was hybrid) and limited interactions to protect the people in her life. She was not concerned about herself! She could have been like some of her friends who continued to behave like irresponsible teenagers, getting themselves and others sick and in a couple of cases sending parents or grandparents to the hospital. But hey, immunity!

Can you tell me where you got the 85% immunity number? Or did you make it up?

People developing immunity after recovering from the disease is a big factor, and many people were never tested so the post-Covid population is bigger than we know, but I'd be careful about your assumption that people who were asymptomatic developed immunity.  There is evidence to the contrary (including an individual who I know about personally).  

notupset said:

It is possible they will never make up this year of lost learning and they will have been instilled with an attitude of fear towards others in this impressionable time.   What a sad thing. 

It is also possible that the kids learned more about real-life, many became connected to the digital world who had never been connected before, many kids learned to adapt and learn in a new style and be creative in new ways, and some of us took the opportunity of life slowing down and more time with the kids to try to appreciate it. 

I look forward to going back to 'normality'. But during this past year, instead of fighting the challenges and restrictions, it seemed more constructive to explore the different opportunities they provided.

notupset said:

I really feel bad for our children who were robbed of a year of school and who were forced into so many restrictions, when really they were never at risk, at least not more than normal life risks.   It is possible they will never make up this year of lost learning and they will have been instilled with an attitude of fear towards others in this impressionable time.   What a sad thing.    When thinking about immunity please don't forget how many people have been infected and have immunity from that.    In addition to the known cases in NJ, 3 out of 4 cases or so were not detected, largely because they were asymptomatic.    By now we probably have at least 85% of the state with some immunity and the plunging numbers confirm this.   

 the plunging case numbers are much, much more likely due to vaccinations than to previous infection. The decline was precipitous after half of our residents were vaccinated at least once. 

And where does the figure of 3 out of 4 cases in NJ were undetected come from? Given the amount of testing that was done in the state over the past year, that seems like a very dubious statistic. 

notupset said:

I really feel bad for our children who were robbed of a year of school and who were forced into so many restrictions, when really they were never at risk, at least not more than normal life risks.   It is possible they will never make up this year of lost learning and they will have been instilled with an attitude of fear towards others in this impressionable time.   What a sad thing.    When thinking about immunity please don't forget how many people have been infected and have immunity from that.    In addition to the known cases in NJ, 3 out of 4 cases or so were not detected, largely because they were asymptomatic.    By now we probably have at least 85% of the state with some immunity and the plunging numbers confirm this.   

 children were ALWAYS at risk.  Children died early on, many  got that weird severe inflammatory complication...i forget what its called....and many more would carry the virus without symptoms and could have killed their parents/grandparents/others. there is no way there is 85% immunity.  only about 10% have tested positive, maybe another 10% had it....but among those, many also got the vaccine so you can't count them 2x.  And many died so you can't count them as immune.  I would guess the rate of partial protection is about 65%.

Since about March, most symptomatic people were tested and counted.  Many tested were asymptotic but positive...1 theory is that about half the cases are asymptomatic....but many of those got tested....so at worst we likely have TWICE as many total cases as known positives which puts it around 20% of NJ

and then look at the Yankees, they got JJ and got sick, not only that they had the ability to spread the virus.