Wind Chill Advisory Thurs - Sat, Jan 4 - 6 (Winter Storm Warning CANCELlED)

The models have come into a general agreement on a forecast that puts 2 - 3 inches of fairly light weight snow on MAPSO Thursday.

A powerful fast-moving coastal storm will be developing over the next 24 hours.  The storm will run up the coast offshore.  Snow will develop here overnight Wednesday into Thursday, with heaviest snowfall during the day Thursday.  Cold dry air will mean that the snow will be light and fluffy, so depths of 3" may occur even though only 0.1" of actual water is expected to fall.

Winds will pick up in the afternoon Thursday, with a steady 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.  Winds will continue into the weekend, and with temperatures dropping into the single digits, the wind and cold Friday and Saturday are really much more serious worries for our area than the snow, although blowing and drifting may cause limited visibility from Thursday afternoon through the weekend. 

The TV guys and the weather apps are getting excited for good reason -- this is a powerful storm that has the potential to drop 8 - 10" of snow.  Just not on us.  Eastern Long Island and Connecticut will be the worst hit, but the center of the storm will almost certainly stay off shore.


Thanks, Max. Happy New Year!


Any chance it moves a bit more west and we get nailed?


Would you be worried about a flight out of Newark at 8:30 pm on Friday?


Airlines are already waiving change fees for travel to/from the NE & SE.



mammabear said:

Any chance it moves a bit more west and we get nailed?

Always a chance.  NWS puts it at about 10:1 against right now.


Hopeful, this storm will leave warmer weather in its wake.


Forecast remains on track this morning, with warning-level snow to our east on Long Island, and 2 - 4" for our area.  While the chance for us to get clobbered is very small, it still exists, with the NWS calculating a 1 in 10 chance of 8 - 12"


High winds and very cold temps will follow the storm for several days.  Timing for the snowfall remains overnight Wed to Thurs, continuing through the day Thurs.


I don't remember ever having a cold snap this long.  Colder days, yes, but serious cold for most of two weeks, no.


Thank you Max. Happy New Year!  


Thanks so much Max.  I always appreciate your making sense of the weather for us here in MAPSO.  


Connecticut has the potential for a really neat storm hitting it!  Gonna be lots of fun to watch my CT friends' Facebook feeds from the relative calm of Morristown (less than two inches predicted for us).



bub said:

I don't remember ever having a cold snap this long.  Colder days, yes, but serious cold for most of two weeks, no.

January 1978, as I recall it, entire moth was below 20F, with numerous days in single digits.



tomcat said:



bub said:

I don't remember ever having a cold snap this long.  Colder days, yes, but serious cold for most of two weeks, no.

January 1978, as I recall it, entire moth was below 20F, with numerous days in single digits.

"The longest streak of days below 32 degrees at Newark Liberty International Airport -- the main climate station in northern New Jersey -- is 16 days, from Jan. 19 through Feb. 3 in 1961, the National Weather Service said."

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/12/brrrr_with_sub-zero_wind_chills_nj_feels_like_an_i.html




Appropriate for the upcoming weather-this could have been me.


Folk have been asking what a "bomb cyclone" is.  Yes, it is a technically correct term.  It also happens several times a year, mostly with little effect on us.  Most nor'easters are this type of storm.  This storm is also technically a Miller A type, but since that does not sound as sexy, you won't see the media using it as clickbait.

From the NWS:  "Bombogenesis, a popular term used by meteorologists, occurs when a midlatitude cyclone rapidly intensifies, dropping at least 24 millibars over 24 hours. A millibar measures atmospheric pressure. This can happen when a cold air mass collides with a warm air mass, such as air over warm ocean waters. The formation of this rapidly strengtheining weather system is a process called bombogenesis, which creates what is known as a bomb cyclone. "

In this case, a warm low pressure system is moving up the coast from off Florida.  Tonight it will merge with the cold dry airmass we have been enjoying since Christmas.  That will cause the sharp drop in pressure.  That is also what causes the sharp drop in snowfall from east to west, and the strength of the current cold air mass is what is pushing the storm out to sea and keeping us from getting clobbered.

Another note:  a cyclone is any rotating storm.  Yes, these storm can be intense.  This one certainly is, and all hurricanes and typhoons are also cyclones.  But as noted above, the same cold air that is going to cause this one to bomb is also keeping it away from us.




callista said:

Appropriate for the upcoming weather-this could have been me.

Guffaw!



callista said:

Appropriate for the upcoming weather-this could have been me.

Just have to share this.  We went to Cuba in October.  The island has a very creative spirit, especially in the way toilets get signage.  I've attached some of my favorites.


Happy New Year!

Keep Smilin'

Ron Carter


So many other outlets are saying 4-6” for us. Max, what do you think? 


ABC just revised their forecast to call for 3 - 6 in our area.  They are saying that the storm is tracking closer to the coast than originally forecast.


I am still waiting for the NWS to update their discussion with the latest model runs.  That said, I think I need to up the forecast to 3 - 5" for MAPSO.

Some things to keep in mind:

1)  This storm is very powerful.  If it were summer, this would be a hurricane.  But it is not currently summer and so this storm does not have the warm water to feed off as it comes up the coast. 

2)  This storm will not make landfall in New Jersey.  The current forecast track is still about +/- 50 miles wide, and the center does not make land until it hits Conn.  It would be astounding if the center of the storm hits any part of New York except eastern Suffolk. 

3)  The drop-off on the back side, where we are, is very steep.  That is why Newark is on a Winter Storm Warning, and we are not even on a Watch, just an advisory.  This means that if the storm shifts track, we could get more snow.  I think this is unlikely, but there is one outlier in the models that suggests it, and the TV and internet sites have been hyping it.

4)  I also do not think we will get more snow than forecast because the dry air flowing down from Canada.  It is this mass of dry air that is (a) going to cause the bombing of the low, (b) pushing the storm east, and (c) it will soak up the first couple of hours of snow, perhaps more.  I think we will see virga (that is snow that falls but does not reach the ground) until the air is more saturated.

5)  I do not want to minimize the effect the wind will have.  The winds will pick up during the day tomorrow.  They will be a steady 20+ mph with gusts over 30 mph.  This will cause blowing and drifting -- another reason the NWS is putting up Warnings along the coast.  The winds will continue through the weekend, and it will be very cold.  Wind chills could be near zero.


So this is what the NWS says for our area:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road  conditions, including 
during the morning commute on Thursday.  In addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. 
Total snow  accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected.
* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New  York.
* WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will  cause areas of blowing and 
drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause primarily travel
difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited
visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

Based on what I see at this time, I think we can expect snow to start falling after midnight tonight, with periods of heavy snow possible starting early tomorrow morning and continuing through the day.  total accumulation could be 3 - 5" depending on premature and wind.  wind will pick up in the afternoon and blowing & drifting snow could be an issue.

Because of the nature of this storm, it will be significantly more severe to our east, including as close as the shore and Newark airport.  The city is forecast to get 4 - 8" with the higher accumulation in Brooklyn and Queens.  Long Island could see as much as 10" especially in Suffolk County.  Conn will also likely see higher accumulations.  Conditions to our west, OTOH, will be drier, with only a couple of inches in Morristown and little or nothing west of the Water Gap.

Travel could be difficult, with both rush hours effected.  Allow extra time for travel.


Any predictions on wind speed in our area? I'm afraid that we will lose power just before the subzero temps arrive on Friday/Saturday.


Steady 20 mph with gusts 30 - 35.

I think it is more about the misery the wind will cause.  Unless somehow we get ice or heavy wet snow (which we shouldn't) these winds will not in and of themselves bring down wires.  Any untrimmed old tree limbs might, though.



callista said:

Appropriate for the upcoming weather-this could have been me.

Was off by a year, it was Jan 1979 that was bitterly cold.


FWIW - WNYC is saying 5-8 inches right now.



drummerboy said:

FWIW - WNYC is saying 5-8 inches right now.

Accurate for Central Park.


I type this standing on a delayed 6:08 train.  I'm guessing I should plan to work from home tomorrow.  Yes?


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